India’s formal suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on April 24, 2025, marks a watershed moment in South Asian geopolitics, coming in direct response to the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 people, including tourists. This unprecedented move has triggered significant regional tensions and could have far-reaching implications for water security, agriculture, and diplomatic relations between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
Background of the Suspension
The suspension follows the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which India has linked to Pakistan-based terrorists. In response, India announced a comprehensive five-point action plan that includes:
- Suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty
- Closure of the Attari-Wagah border check post
- Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistani nationals
- Expulsion of Pakistani military advisors from India
- Reduction of diplomatic personnel at India’s High Commission in Islamabad
In its formal notification to Pakistan, India cited “sustained cross-border terrorism targeting Jammu and Kashmir” as the primary reason for holding the treaty in abeyance. Water Resources Secretary Debashree Mukherjee emphasized that “the obligation to honor a treaty in good faith is fundamental,” suggesting Pakistan had violated this principle.
The Indus Waters Treaty Framework
The 1960 treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has been a cornerstone of water-sharing arrangements between the two countries for 65 years, surviving multiple wars and periods of heightened tension. Under its provisions:
- India received control of the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej), amounting to about 33 million acre-feet (MAF) annually
- Pakistan was allocated the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab), amounting to approximately 135 MAF annually
- India was permitted limited use of western rivers for hydroelectric projects under specific design criteria
Notably, the treaty contains no sunset clause or provisions for unilateral withdrawal or suspension.
Immediate Implications of the Suspension
For India:
With the treaty suspended, India is no longer obligated to:
- Notify Pakistan about projects on western rivers
- Share hydrological data
- Entertain visits by Pakistani inspection officials
- Hold meetings between Indus Commissioners
India can now:
- Undertake reservoir flushing on the Kishanganga project
- Fast-track hydroelectric projects on western rivers without design restrictions
- Build dams without Pakistani consultation or approval
For Pakistan:
The suspension poses several critical challenges:
- Potential water insecurity for a country where 80% of cultivated land relies on the Indus system
- Loss of flood warnings and hydrological data critical for water management
- Uncertainty in agricultural planning, potentially affecting food security
- Economic vulnerability, as the Indus system contributes to approximately 25% of Pakistan’s GDP
Pakistan has responded by declaring the suspension an “act of war” and threatening to withdraw from all bilateral agreements, including the 1972 Simla Agreement.
Three-Phase Implementation Plan
India has announced a comprehensive three-phase approach to operationalize the suspension:
Short-term measures:
- Halt regulated water releases from projects like Kishanganga and Ratle dams
- Stop sharing real-time flow data
- Block future inspections of hydro infrastructure
Mid-term measures:
- Increase capacity of existing dams along the Indus basin
- Utilize full share of eastern river waters through completed projects like Shahpurkandi dam
Long-term measures:
- Develop new infrastructure to store and divert water
- Complete planned projects like the Ujh dam on the Ravi river
Practical Limitations and Realities
Despite the strong rhetoric, experts point to significant practical limitations:
- Infrastructure constraints: India currently lacks the necessary large-scale storage facilities to significantly alter water flows to Pakistan in the short term.
- Existing capacity: India’s current dams and barrages on the western rivers can store less than 1 MAF, a fraction of the total flow.
- Seasonal challenges: During peak monsoon season, tens of billions of cubic meters of water flow through these rivers, making complete diversion practically impossible.
- Project timelines: Major hydroelectric projects could take 4-7 years to complete, limiting immediate impact.
As Himanshu Thakkar, a water resources specialist, noted: “The infrastructure India possesses primarily consists of run-of-the-river hydropower plants, which do not necessitate substantial storage.”
Regional Security Implications
The suspension has heightened regional tensions significantly:
- Pakistan’s National Security Committee has warned that any attempt to stop water flow will be “responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”
- Former Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari issued a stark warning: “India has unilaterally decided to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, under which India had acknowledged that the Indus belongs to Pakistan… the Indus is ours and will remain ours.”
- The situation is particularly concerning given both countries’ nuclear capabilities and history of conflict over Kashmir.
- There are concerns that China, as an upstream riparian state to India, might respond by threatening water flows from the Brahmaputra River.
Economic and Humanitarian Concerns
The potential humanitarian impact in Pakistan could be severe:
- Disruption to water flows could impact food security and urban water supplies
- Agricultural sector, which employs a significant portion of Pakistan’s population, faces uncertainty
- Water scarcity is already a challenge due to climate change, with water levels reportedly 20-25% lower than last year
As Ghasharib Shaokat, head of product at Pakistan Agriculture Research, noted: “It jeopardizes our agricultural future. Erratic water flows could severely impact our irrigation-dependent crops… Yields might decrease, costs could escalate, and food prices are likely to surge.”
Long-term Strategic Considerations
Beyond the immediate crisis, the suspension appears to serve broader strategic objectives for India:
- Renegotiation leverage: India has been seeking to renegotiate the treaty for years, viewing the current terms as unfavorable.
- Water security: Climate change and growing populations have increased pressure on water resources in both countries.
- Terrorism deterrence: The suspension aims to “escalate the cost for terrorism that Pakistan funds and exports.”
- Domestic political considerations: The strong response plays well with domestic constituencies in India.
Conclusion
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty represents a significant escalation in India-Pakistan relations with potentially far-reaching implications for regional stability, water security, and diplomatic engagement. While immediate physical impacts may be limited by infrastructure constraints, the long-term consequences could reshape water politics in South Asia for decades to come. The international community, particularly the World Bank as the original broker of the treaty, will likely play a crucial role in any potential resolution to this crisis.
As this situation continues to evolve, the management of shared water resources remains a critical challenge in a region already facing climate change pressures and historical tensions.
